A “city killer”–sized asteroid called 2024 YR4, which had been discovered swooping uncomfortably near Earth last December, now has an estimated 3.1 percent chance of striking our planet during another close encounter in late 2032, space scientists announced on Tuesday. The escalation makes this sizable space rock the most threatening ever forecasted to impact Earth, although the prospect for catastrophe remains relatively slim: the chance for a direct hit is now one in 32.
“This is the highest impact probability we have seen for an asteroid of this size or larger,” says Davide Farnocchia, an impact hazard expert at the Center for Near Earth Object Studies at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). But Farnocchia notes that 2024 YR4’s superlative status is unlikely to last. “The impact probability might change by the time you write this up,” he says.
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