ABSTRACT
The Fermi paradox is the conflict between an expectation of a high {\emex ante} probability of intelligent life elsewhere in the universe and the apparently lifeless universe we in fact observe. The expectation that the universe should be teeming with intelligent life is linked to models like the Drake equation, which suggest that even if the probability of intelligent life developing at a given site is small, the sheer multitude of possible sites should nonetheless yield a large number of potentially observable civilizations. We show that this conflict arises from the use of Drake-like equations, which implicitly assume certainty regarding highly uncertain parameters. We examine these parameters, incorporating models of chemical and genetic transitions on paths to the origin of life, and show that extant scientific knowledge corresponds to uncertainties that span multiple orders of magnitude. This makes a stark difference. When the model is recast to represent realistic distributions of uncertainty, we find a substantial {\em ex ante} probability of there being no other intelligent life in our observable universe, and thus that there should be little surprise when we fail to detect any signs of it. This result dissolves the Fermi paradox, and in doing so removes any need to invoke speculative mechanisms by which civilizations would inevitably fail to have observable effects upon the universe.
If the anomalous aerial objects we've observed are physical objects, and I believe they are, then are they objectively or subjectively produced phenomena? If they're not subjective phenomena, then something else is responsible for them. If we are the only intelligent life in the universe, then there's only a couple of other logical explanations, one is that these objects are from our future, and two is that they are from another universe. Both of these propositions require more of a stretch of the imagination than the possibility that the Fermi paradox is wrong, and that there really are other intelligent civilizations out there who are smart enough to observe and interact with us without destroying us. Just a thought. To download the .PDF of the paper, click here.