The Longevity of Human Civilizations

A question often asked by those involved in the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) is, “How long can advanced civilizations last?” The search for intelligent aliens is much less likely to succeed if cultures inevitably destroy themselves when they reach a certain level of technology. So the Drake Equation, which tries to estimate the possible number of intelligent alien civilizations in the galaxy, includes a factor for longevity.

Cultures on Earth rise and fall for various reasons; the Fall of Rome is the most famous, but scholars are still debating exactly why it happened. With modern technological threats like nuclear weapons, climate change caused by burning fossil fuels, and genetically-engineered viruses now at hand, our current culture’s downfall might seem inevitable to students of history. Yet astronomers tend to be more optimistic, and dream of a far-future society where we re-engineer the solar system or travel to the distant stars.

The longevity of our civilization was the topic of a symposium recently held in Washington DC. The symposium was organized and led by the holder of the NASA/ Library of Congress Astrobiology chair David Grinspoon, in an ornate room that would not have been out of place in ancient Pompeii -- before that city was destroyed by an enormous volcanic eruption. http://www.astrobio.net/exclusive/5737/the-longevity-of-human-civilizations