Traditional computing, with its ever more microscopic circuitry etched in silicon, will soon reach a final barrier: Moore's law, which dictates that the amount of computing power you can squeeze into the same space will double every 18 months, is on course to run smack into a silicon wall due to overheating, caused by electrical charges running through ever more tightly packed circuits.
"In about ten years or so, we will see the collapse of Moore’s Law. In fact, already, already we see a slowing down of Moore’s Law," says world-renowned physicist, Michio Kaku. "Computer power simply cannot maintain its rapid exponential rise using standard silicon technology."
According to Kaku, at the International Supercomputing Conference 2011 last June, Intel architecture group VP Kirk Skaugen said something about Moore’s Law not being sufficient, by itself, for the company to ramp up to exascale performance by 2018. But he went on to tout Intel’s tri-gate technology (the company’s so-called “3D” processors) as the solution, which Skaugen announced means “no more end of life for Moore’s Law.”
Despite Intel’s recent advances with tri-gate processors, Kaku argues in a video interview with Big Think, that the company has merely delayed the inevitable: the law’s collapse due to heat and leakage issues.
“So there is an ultimate limit set by the laws of thermal dynamics and set by the laws of quantum mechanics as to how much computing power you can do with silicon,” says Kaku, noting “That’s the reason why the age of silicon will eventually come to a close,” and arguing that Moore’s Law could “flatten out completely” by 2022."
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